Vietnam Insight

▶ The market posted a strong gain in the commencing session of the week, driven by the duo VIC - VHM, the Banking group, and several large-cap stocks such as SSI, MWG, and GEX. Market liquidity showed relative improvement as matched value rose to VND 31 trillion, exceeding the 20-session average. The index opened with an upward gap and maintained green color throughout the morning session, followed by a sharp surge in the afternoon as cash flow spread more broadly. In line with the positive overall market sentiment, foreign investors also recorded a net buying session with a value exceeding VND 500 billion. Generally, the market is on track to retest its previous peak around the 1,770-point zone.

▶ At the close of the session, the VN-Index rose by 46.72 points (+2.74%) to end at 1,751.03 points; the HNX-Index increased by 3.26 points (+1.28%) to reach 257.23 points. Total market liquidity climbed to VND 31 trillion, corresponding to over 1.05 billion shares traded. Foreign investors reversed to a net buy of VND 521 billion during the session, with significant net buying recorded in MWG, GEX, and VIX. On the other hand, notable net selling occurred in FPT, ACB, and VNM...

▶ Technical perspective: The market started the trading week impressively with a gain of nearly 47 points, surpassing the 1,750 mark on improved liquidity that exceeded the 20-session moving average (MA20). Simultaneously, the return of foreign net buying further strengthened the market's momentum. We believe the next trend for the VN-Index will be a recovery toward the previous peak at the 1,800 threshold in the coming period.

Base case Scenario: The market has recovered positively and climbed above 1,700 (temporarily escaping the 1,600 - 1,700 sideways range) with improved liquidity, broadening market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. However, the market will face certain resistance as it nears its old peak and may see fluctuations around 1,800 before cash flow improves further following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026.

Negative case Scenario: Downward momentum continues to increase with rising trading volume on the sell side, and no "bottom-fishing" demand appears around the 1,600 - 1,650 level. In this scenario, the market could continue toward the 1,500 support zone and even lower price ranges for testing.

Strategy: Investors should carefully select stocks as the VN-Index score is heavily influenced by the performance of the VIC group. Medium and long-term investors can begin partial disbursements in stock groups with strong business results and attractive discounts, such as Banking, Finance, and Public Investment. Shorter-term investors may look for improved cash flow and price action to select stocks in sectors such as Power/Electricity, Industrial Parks, and Technology.