Macro/ Strategy

Food and foodstuff CPI surged 

November inflation increased by 0.45% MoM, being attributable to (1) food and foodstuff group and (2) transportation group. The total contribution of these two groups equals the overall increase. Three major floods in November were severe, resulting in significant loss of life and property. Due to the scale of the disaster, widespread inundation occurred in many areas, causing damage to agricultural products. Food supply was disrupted. The food & foodstuff group increased by 0.95% MoM, contributing 0.34 percentage points to the headline CPI. 

The transportation group increased by 1.07%, contributing 0.11 percentage points to the overall increase. In particular, the diesel price index increased by 5.23% MoM, and the gasoline price index increased by 2.41% due to domestic fuel price adjustment. The increase in gasoline prices led to a 3.61% MoM increase in mix passenger transportation costs. However, gasoline prices decreased slightly in December. The retail price of diesel on 18 December 2025 was only 17,470 VND/liter, increasing by 11.8% compared to the peak on 20 November 2025 (19,820 VND/liter).

Manufacturing continued the momentum

The Industrial Production Index (IIP) increased by 10.76% YoY in November and 9.34% in 11M2025. The PMI in November reached 53.8 points, a slight decrease from 54.5 points in October. However, the PMI consistently remained above 50 points since July, marking a long streak of continuous expansion in manufacturing activity. Export orders in November increased significantly, driven by strong demand from both China and India. Because of the flood impact, there were some disruptions to the supply chain and the ability to fulfill orders on time. Therefore, the inventory level of finished goods decreased significantly.