Vietnam Insight

▶ After a 4-session declining steak, the VN-Index fluctuated sideways during the first session of the week amidst mixed performance across sectors. Several large-cap stocks, such as VPB, VRE, and VNM, posted strong gains, helping to support the index. However, negative performance in the real estate sector prevented the VN-Index from closing in the green. Market liquidity has not yet shown signs of improvement, with matched order value remaining at a low level. A bright spot was foreign investors returning to net buying with nearly VND 700 billion.

▶ At the close of the trading session, the VN-Index moved sideways with a slight adjustment of 0.88 points (-0.05%), closing at 1,646.01 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 0.72 points (-0.29%) to reach 249.37 points. Total market liquidity reached only VND 20.7 trillion, corresponding to over 800 million shares traded. Foreign investors reversed to net buying with a value of VND 694 billion, with the most heavily net-bought stocks being TCX, VIX, and HPG. Conversely, significant net selling was seen in VIC, MBB, and MSN...

▶ Technical perspective: The market traded cautiously around the medium-term MA100 support level, closing at the reference level compared to the previous session. Liquidity remained below the 20-session average, indicating that selling pressure was not excessive; however, demand remained hesitant to enter the market. The dominant trend involves trading within the 1,600–1,700 point range amidst market divergence. It is highly likely that the market will retreat to retest the 1,600-point threshold to gauge demand before establishing a new trend.

Base Case Scenario: The market recovers positively, surpassing the 1,700 level (temporarily breaking out of the 1,600–1,700 sideways channel) with improved liquidity, better market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. We believe the market will encounter certain resistance when revisiting old peaks and will fluctuate around 1,800 points before cash flow improves following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026.

Negative Scenario: Downward momentum accelerates with increasing volume on the decline, with no emergence of bottom-fishing demand around the 1,550–1,580 range. In this scenario, the market could continue towards the 1,500 support zone and lower levels for testing.

Strategy: Investors need to select stocks carefully given that the VN-Index is being heavily influenced by movements in the VIC group. Medium- and long-term investors can begin to partially disburse capital into stocks with solid earnings results and sufficiently attractive valuations, such as Banking, Finance, and Construction Materials. Short-term investors should monitor cash flow and price improvements to select stocks in sectors such as Electricity, Industrial Parks, and Technology…