Vietnam Insight

Key highlights:

_ Today (11 December), the National Assembly passed a resolution amending and supplementing Resolution 98 on piloting special mechanisms and policies — a long-awaited legal framework that provides Ho Chi Minh City with stronger conditions to accelerate growth and achieve breakthroughs.

_ Income from the transfer of digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will be subject to a 0.1% tax, similar to securities transactions.

_ Transactions involving gold bullion will also be subject to a 0.1% tax on the value of each transaction.

_ The Fed cut interest rates for the third time this year, lowering rates by 25 basis points (0.25%).

Assessment: Over the past week, the market has returned to its familiar trading range of 1,600-1,700, reflecting cautious sentiment amid the pre-Tet period, the upcoming 16th National Assembly election, and the absence of leadership from large capitalization stocks. We believe market activity will become more vibrant after Tet as uncertainties gradually clear and the year-end earnings season unfolds. In addition, interest-rate movements and liquidity conditions in the interbank market will need close monitoring in the coming period. We expect the Fed’s rate cut to help ease these pressures to some extent.

Technical view: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,646.9 points (-94.4 points; -5.42%) on low liquidity. The market declined largely in line with weakness in the VIC group, with no meaningful capital rotation into other sectors. The sharp correction near the 1,800 level suggests the market will need more time before a clear uptrend can be re-established. The 1,600-1,700 range is expected to remain the VN-Index’s primary trading zone in the coming week.

Investment idea: Short-term investors should stay on the sidelines and monitor index behavior around the 1,600 level. A clear trend-reversal signal could open opportunities for new positions; however, exposure should be kept modest.