Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap up of 2.03 points after the previous correction. Foreign investors continued to net sell, putting selling pressure on the VN-Index, although the net selling value decreased compared to previous sessions. Today's relatively sharp decline stemmed from the correction pressure on Vingroup stocks.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 28.19 points (-1.61%) to 1,719.98 points; the HNX-Index fell 0.66 points (-0.26%) to 256.48 points. Market liquidity during the index correction session decreased sharply, falling below the 20-day average to 21.3 trillion VND, corresponding to 724 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 368 billion VND, with the largest net selling value in VIC, STB, and VCB. Conversely, MBB, HPG, and VJC were typical net-buying stocks.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continued its sharp decline, but the main reason was the correction in the Vingroup group. Lower-than-average trading volume indicates that the correction did not involve strong selling pressure, mainly just a correction in terms of points. In terms of trend, the VN-Index remains positive as it stands firm above the MA10 and MA20 lines, important support levels for the current uptrend. In the following sessions, the market will continue to test the money flow as it trades around the 1,700-1,750 point range, requiring widespread support and consensus, along with improved liquidity.

In a positive scenario: The market has recovered positively and surpassed 1,700 (temporarily breaking out of the 1,600-1,700 point sideways range) with improved liquidity, better market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. We believe the market will encounter some resistance when returning to the previous peak and will fluctuate around 1,800 before money flow improves after the Party Congress in early 2026 concludes. With the target of double-digit economic growth for 2026 and the overall market profit growth of more than 18%, we expect the VN-Index to reach the 1,900-2,000 range for 2026.

In the negative case: The downtrend continues to increase with trading volume gradually increasing in a downward direction, there is no bottom-fishing force around the threshold of 1,550 - 1,580 points. The market can then continue to move towards the support zone of 1,500 and lower price zones for testing.

Strategy: Investors need to choose suitable stocks in the context of the VNINDEX score being strongly influenced by the development of the VIC group. Investors following a medium- and long-term investment strategy can begin gradually investing in stock groups with good business results and attractive discounts, such as banking, finance, and construction materials sectors. Shorter-term investors can look at cash flow and price improvements to select stocks in sectors such as electricity, industrial parks, and technology.