Vietnam Insight

▶ VN-Index experienced a relatively volatile trading session on Tuesday, although it opened with a gap up, the uptrend quickly weakened. Though the market did not decrease much in terms of points (due to being supported by a few large stocks such as VIC, VJC, HDB), most industry groups were under selling pressure, mostly towards the end of the afternoon session. The selling momentum spread widely, especially in the group of financial stocks. Foreign investors maintained net-selling position on the basis of exhausted liquidity.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index recorded a decrease of 7.62 points (-0.46%), closing at 1,660.36 points; HNX-Index decreased slightly by 3.92 points (-1.5%), reaching 257.30 points. Liquidity of the whole market was quite gloomy, reaching only 29 trillion VND, equivalent to just over 1 billion shares traded. Foreign investors net sold with a net value of VND 363 billion, in which the stocks with the strongest net selling were SSI, VIC and VHM. On the other hand, typical net buying stocks were HDB, VNM and FPT.

▶ Technical perspective: In the absence of new supporting factors, VN-Index decreased slightly during the session, with about 70% of stocks closing in the red. Large-cap stocks such as VIC, VJC and VPL continued to play an important role in supporting the index in the short term. Selling pressure reappeared after several recovery sessions; however, when the fluctuation amplitude is still in the trading range with average liquidity, VN-Index has not yet broken its current sideways structure. In the coming sessions, the stability of the market will depend on the absence of selling pressure and the demand maintaining well at the lower limit of the fluctuation amplitude.

In the base case: The market is showing signs of balance at the 1,600 point area, with liquidity declining sharply across the market and institutional cash flow starting to spread to industry groups with good growth prospects. We believe that VN-Index will trade in a sideways trend (1,600 - 1,700) for the rest of 2025, and the cash flow is expected to be stronger after the Party Congress in early 2026.

In the negative case: The downtrend continues to increase with trading volume gradually increasing in a downward direction, without bottom-fishing force appearing around the threshold of 1,550 - 1,580 points. The market may then continue to move towards the support zone of 1,500 and lower price zones for testing.

Strategy: Investors following the trading style can observe the market reaction around the 1,650 - 1,700 area. If the correction sessions do not cause the index to break down the sideways channel, this could be a good opportunity for investors following this style to disburse again. Investors with medium and long-term investment styles can start to disburse part of their investment in stock groups with good business results and attractive discounts such as banking, finance, construction materials, etc.