Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened with a gap of 1.16 points in the first session of the trading week. Domestic buying power in today's session prevailed over the continued net selling momentum of foreign investors. Foreign investors had the largest net selling session in the past 10 sessions. Vingroup stocks played a pivotal role in today's session and led the index. 

▶ At the end of the session, the VN-Index increased by 13.05 points (+0.79%), to 1,667.98 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 1.91 points (-0.73%), to 261.22 points. Market liquidity in the correction session improved compared to previous sessions, but liquidity continued to be lower than the 20-session average, reaching VND 18.7 trillion, equivalent to 647 million shares traded. Foreign investors sold a net amount of VND 1,153 billion, with the largest net selling value being VRE, VHM and VIC. On the contrary, FPT, VHM and VPB were the typical net buying stocks.

▶ Technical perspective: VN-Index recorded a slight recovery with a small spread, mainly led by large-cap stocks (VNM, VIC and VRE). Meanwhile, the general market level is flat with liquidity remaining at a low level; only about 35% of stocks are trading above the EMA50 line, showing that the spread of the recovery is still limited. This context shows that many stocks with good fundamentals are becoming attractive in terms of valuation, based on positive growth prospects in 2026. Historically, when the proportion of stocks trading above the EMA50 falls to the 20-30% range, it is often a signal that the correction is coming to an end and the market is entering the first phase of a new recovery cycle.

Currently, the index is still fluctuating in a narrow range with low volume, reflecting the cautious sentiment of investors in the context of the fiscal year-end and the ongoing National Assembly session. The selling pressure is quite weak, thereby opening up the possibility of forming an FTD session if the cash flow improves strongly enough, but the current low liquidity also increases the risk of strong fluctuations, including both short-term strong increases and corrections.

In the positive case: The market is showing signs of balance around the 1,600 point area, with liquidity declining sharply across the market and institutional cash flow starting to spread to industry groups with good growth prospects. We believe that the VN-Index will trade in a sideways trend (1600-1700) for the rest of 2025, cash flow is expected to be stronger after the Party Congress in early 2026.

In the negative case: The downtrend continues to increase with trading volume gradually increasing in a downward direction, without bottom-fishing force appearing around the threshold of 1,550-1,580 points. The market can then continue to move towards the support zone of 1,500 and lower price zones for testing. 

Strategy: Investors following the trading school can observe the market reaction around the 1,650-1,700 range. If the correction sessions do not cause the index to fall out of the sideway channel (currently showing the above signals), this could be a good opportunity for investors following this school to disburse again. Investors following the medium and long-term investment school can start to disburse part of the stock groups with good business results and attractive enough discounts such as banking, finance, construction materials, etc.