Vietnam Insight

“Rollercoaster” movements in interest rate cut forecasts. US stock futures advanced on Monday as Wall Street looked to recover from a volatile week, with traders boosting bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut and growing more optimistic about Nvidia’s potential export sales to China. Dow futures rose 0.3%, S&P 500 futures added 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.6%. New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that a near-term rate cut remains possible as labor market weakness poses a greater risk than elevated inflation. Markets now price in about a 69% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction in December, up from 44% a week earlier. Meanwhile, reports indicated that US officials have begun early discussions on whether to allow Nvidia to sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has been lobbying the Trump administration for relief from export controls that have enabled competitors to gain ground in Chinese markets.

Return to the sideways range of 1,600-1,700. The VN-Index closed the week at 1,654.9 (+19.4 points; +1.19%), with liquidity still showing no clear signs of improvement. The index has returned to the 1,600–1,700 trading range. This week's gain was mainly driven by the real estate group, including VIC, VHM, and other large-cap stocks (VJC). Foreign investors continued to net sell. In the base case scenario, we expect the market to hold firmly to the 1,600 level.

Trading Strategy: Trading-oriented investors can monitor the market's reaction around the 1,650-1,700 range. If the index does not drop out of the sideway channel during corrective sessions (which is currently showing these signs), this could be a good opportunity for this type of investor to re-enter the market. Medium- and long-term investors can begin partially disbursing capital into stocks with strong business results and attractive enough discounts, such as the banking, financial, and construction materials sectors.