Vietnam Insight

▶ VN-Index started the trading week with an increase on the basis of exhausted liquidity after a sharp decline last week. The index improved in the late afternoon session when many stocks regained their gains, helping the market close the session up by nearly 13 points. Foreign investors also narrowed their net selling momentum thanks to a net buying reversal in a few stocks such as VIC, HPG, VNM...

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index recorded an increase of 13.07 points (+0.83%), closing at 1,593.61 points; HNX-Index increased by 2.9 points (+1.12%), reaching 261.08 points. Liquidity of the whole market remained flat at a low level, reaching 22 trillion VND, equivalent to just over 748 million shares traded. Foreign investors narrowed their selling momentum with a net value of 75 billion VND, in which the largest selling value was concentrated in MBB, STB, CTG.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index is showing initial signs of stabilization near the 1,580 level, accompanied by modest demand from "bottom-fishing" buyers. Overall market activity remains characterized by muted liquidity. While many stocks are trading in oversold territory, buyers are demonstrating caution, attempting to gauge whether significant hidden selling pressure still exists at the current price floor. We anticipate that fundamentally strong stocks, which have undergone a deep correction (dropping 15-25% from their recent peaks), will begin to stabilize and await the inflow of new capital.

Base case scenario: The market is showing early signs of equilibrium in the 1,580–1,600 point range, accompanied by a sharp decline in liquidity across the entire market. We expect the market to see bottom-fishing buying force emerge around the 1,550–1,580 range, which would likely move the VN-Index into a sideways trend (1,600–1,700) for the remainder of 2025.

Negative case scenario: The selling momentum continues to accelerate with trading volume increasing alongside the decline, and no bottom-fishing demand has emerged around the 1,550–1,580 point threshold. Consequently, the market may continue to head towards the 1,500 support zone and lower price levels for a test.