Vietnam Insight

▶ The market welcomed the new trading week with a decreasing session, the positive thing is that the low liquidity shows that the selling pressure is not too strong. Although opening with green prices, the index quickly weakened and fell sharply in the afternoon session when many stocks retreated to a decrease of 2-3%. This time, the VinGroup trio led the decline when contributing nearly 13 points to the decrease of the general index. Foreign investors continued the net selling trend, with the strongest net selling volume in stocks of the Financial group.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index recorded a decrease of 30.64 points (-1.82%), closing at 1,652.54 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 1.92 points (-0.72%), reaching 265.36 points. Liquidity of the whole market remained flat at a low level, reaching 33 trillion VND, equivalent to just over 1.1 billion shares traded. Foreign investors net sold VND 1,117 billion, in which the largest net selling value was concentrated in SSI, MBB and MWG.

▶ Technical perspective: VN-Index traded sideways around MA50 in the morning session and suddenly dropped sharply in the afternoon session, falling back to the 1,650 point threshold. Low trading liquidity shows that the selling pressure is not strong but only focuses on stocks that do not have a deep enough discount. The short-term market is still in the trading range of 1,600 - 1,700, with a strong fluctuation range. In the coming time, VN-Index needs to accumulate the balance zone with good liquidity to confirm that the market has bottomed.

In the base case: The market continues to trade in the range of 1,600 - 1,700 points. Liquidity increases in the same direction as the index, the large range and the spreading green color will strengthen the opportunity for the market to return to the uptrend.

In the negative case: If it continues to break the 1,600 point mark, the market is likely to retest the 1,500 - 1,550 point range (this is also the old peak of the market in 2022).

Strategy: Short-term investors should temporarily not buy new and wait for the market to form a price base. In case the market successfully returns to test 1,600 points, investors can disburse for medium- and long-term positions, focusing on groups of stocks with many driving forces such as benefiting from upgrading, strong business growth results; or lower valuation levels compared to the general market.