Vietnam Insight

▶ The market reversed impressively in the opening session of the week and successfully closed at its highest level, with an increase of nearly 50 points for the VN-Index and nearly 60 points for the VN30. This was accompanied by a recovery in cash flow, especially cash flow into large-cap stocks right before the upgrade announcement, raising hopes for the possibility of the Vietnamese market being upgraded this month. The increase spread across many industry groups, in which most securities stocks increased sharply to the upper limits. Contrary to this positive development, foreign investors have not stopped their net selling trend since the beginning of August, when this group recorded a net selling value of more than VND 1,800 billion. 

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 49.68 points (+3.02%), reaching 1,695.50 points; the HNX-Index increased by 8.94 points (+3.36%), reaching 274.69 points. Market liquidity improved to VND34.5 trillion, equivalent to 1.2 billion shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell with a volume of VND 1,858 billion on HOSE, in which the largest net selling value belonged to MWG, MBB and FPT. On the contrary, HPG, VIX, ACB... were the rare bright spots that were net bought by this group.

▶ Technical perspective: The market entered the first session of the week with a 30-point increase right after ATO, cash flow focused on stocks that could benefit from the upgrade such as MSN, SSI, HPG, VRE. After a strong commencement, combined with rumors that Vietnam would be upgraded, stocks showed positive increase. The VN-Index closed at its highest level, with a large fluctuation range, cash flow spreading to many industry groups, and led by the banking and financial groups, which are positive factors in terms of technical analysis. The negative point continues to be the selling momentum of foreign group. With the current developments, the market is likely to exceed 1,700 points, but only when the transaction value increases in line with the score.

In the positive case: Rumors about the market upgrade can help attract new cash flow and move towards 1,750 - 1,800 points. Cash flow increases in the upward direction and large amplitude will strengthen the market's uptrend.

In the negative case: The market faces profit-taking pressure when the upgrade news is announced, the amplitude of the down sessions is large and breaks the short-term support zone of 1,600 points. If this level is broken, the market is likely to retest the 1,500 - 1,550 point area (this is also the old peak area in 2022). 

Strategy: Prioritize the holding strategy and being ready to sell when the target is reached. For short-term traders, if the market corrects to around 1,600 points and rebounds, it is possible to consider disbursing a low proportion. If the market returns to the 1,540 point area, there will be a clearer buying opportunity for medium-term positions. Investors can disburse more strongly, focusing on stock groups with many driving forces such as benefiting from market upgrading, strong business growth results; or lower valuation levels compared to the general market.