Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

• According to SBV data, as of September 29, 2025, credit to the economy had increased by 13.37% compared to the end of 2024. The State Bank expects credit growth in 2025 to reach 19–20%.
• On October 1, the SBV sold additional foreign currency to intervene, but the USD exchange rate still hit the ceiling.

Technical View: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,645.8 points (-14.88 points, -0.9%), extending its sideways trend within the 1,600–1,700 range for the 7th consecutive week. Foreign investors continued heavy net selling of nearly VND 8 trillion during the week. The 1,600–1,623 zone, which aligns with the 50-day moving average on the daily chart, remains a key support level that continues to uphold the medium- to long-term uptrend.

Investment Idea: Prioritize a hold strategy while being ready to sell when targets are achieved. For short-term traders: if the market corrects toward 1,600 and bounces, consider deploying a small allocation. If the index retreats to the 1,540 region, this would present a clearer medium-term buying opportunity. Investors can allocate more aggressively, focusing on stocks with strong drivers such as beneficiaries of the upgrade, companies with robust earnings growth, or those with valuations below the market average.