Vietnam Insight

▶ The market successfully regained the MA 20 mark in the first trading session of the week. However, liquidity has not shown any improvement and is still lower than the 20-session average. The index regained the MA 20 mark thanks to the large contribution of Vingroup stocks and there was no spread between industry groups. The market breadth of declining stocks accounted for the majority with more than 200 stocks declining and less than 100 stocks increasing in today's trading session.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 5.78 points (+0.35%), reaching 1,666.48 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 0.91 points (-0.33%), reaching 275.15 points. The liquidity of the whole market remained below the 20-session average at VND 29.3 trillion, equivalent to 1,044 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell strongly with a value of VND 754 billion, in which the largest net selling value belonged to SSI, DIG and VNM. On the contrary, VPB, GEX and TAL were the typical net buying stocks.

▶ Technical perspective: Liquidity continued to decrease, VN-Index fluctuated within a narrow range. The increase of VIC stocks helped the market maintain green. In general, the market continues to be in a sideways state around 1,600-1,700 points to wait for the official upgrade information on October 7. VN-Index is currently trading above MA50 and RSI is at a neutral level, around 50.

In the positive case: Rumors about the market upgrade can help attract new cash flow and move towards 1,750-1,800 points. Cash flow increases in the upward direction, large amplitude and widespread green color will strengthen the uptrend of the market.

In the negative case: The market faces profit-taking pressure when the upgrade news is announced, the amplitude of the decreasing sessions is large and breaks the short-term support zone of 1,600 points. If this level is broken, the market is likely to retest the zone of 1,500-1,550 points (this is also the old peak of the market in 2022).

Strategy: Prioritize the holding strategy and be ready to sell when the target is reached. For short-term traders, if the market corrects to around 1,600 points and rebounds, it is possible to consider disbursing a low proportion. If the market returns to the 1,540 point area, there will be a clearer buying opportunity for medium-term positions. Investors can disburse more strongly, focusing on groups of stocks with many driving forces such as benefiting from upgrading, strong business growth results; or lower valuation levels compared to the general market.