Vietnam Insight

▶ The market opened the new trading session of the week with a gap down 1.96 points after the adjustment pressure of the previous trading session. Selling pressure covered the index throughout the trading session with a prolonged net selling momentum of foreign investors. Strong selling pressure on pillar stocks pushed the index to close below the MA 20 mark, although the decline stopped at the end of the afternoon session. 

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index decreased by 24.17 points (-1.46%), to 1,634.45 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 2.01 points (-0.73%), to 274.23 points. The liquidity of the whole market in the strong adjustment session of the index, although increased compared to the previous session, continued to decrease below the 20-session average to 38.9 trillion VND, equivalent to about 1,370 million shares traded. Foreign investors returned to strong net selling of VND 1,512 billion during the session, focusing on selling the most stocks VHM, VIC and CTG. On the other hand, VIX, BID and TPB were the stocks with the strongest net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: After failing to surpass the old peak of 1,700 points, VN-Index was under profit-taking pressure, focusing on the VN30 group. The market is experiencing a gap in information as investors are waiting for Q3 business results and official market upgrade information on October 7. The Fed's interest rate cut event is also in line with investors' expectations. With weak demand around the peak, VN-Index easily loses points when selling pressure increases, however, market fluctuations and liquidity have not shown any panic among investors. In terms of trend, VN-Index is still maintaining an upward trend in the medium term when trading above MA50, RSI coefficient at neutral level 49. If there is no special information, VN-Index will likely continue to move in a narrow range of 1,600-1,700 points to wait for new price momentum in October.

In the positive case: Rumors about market upgrade can help attract new cash flow and move towards 1,750-1,800 points. Cash flow increases on the upside, the range increases and spreads throughout the market.

In the negative case: The market faces profit-taking pressure when the upgrade news is announced, the amplitude of the decline sessions is large and breaks the short-term support zone of 1,600 points. If this level is broken, the market is likely to retest the 1,500-1,550 point zone, corresponding to MA 50. 

Strategy: Prioritize the holding strategy and be ready to sell when the target is reached. For short-term traders, if the market corrects to around 1,600 points and rebounds, it is possible to consider disbursing a low proportion. If the market returns to the 1,540 point zone, there will be a clearer buying opportunity for medium-term positions, investors can disburse more heavily, focusing on groups of stocks with many driving forces such as benefiting from the upgrade, strong business results; or lower valuation levels compared to the general market.