Vietnam Insight

▶ The market opened the trading session with a increase gap up of 4.88 points after the Fed's interest rate announcement. However, selling pressure continued to dominate the index, the index traded around the reference level in the morning session. Under strong net selling pressure from foreign investors in the afternoon session, the index fell below the MA 20 mark at times. Thanks to the support of domestic investors, the index regained the MA 20 mark at the end of the afternoon session. 

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index decreased by 5.79 points (-0.35%), to 1,665.18 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 0.71 points (-0.26%), to 276.92 points. The liquidity of the entire market in the adjustment session of the index continued to decrease below the 20-session average to 30.7 trillion VND, equivalent to about 1,060 million shares traded. Foreign investors returned to strong net selling of VND 1,512 billion in the session, focusing on selling the most VIC, VHM and SSI. On the other hand, GEX, HVN and NKG were the stocks with the strongest net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: The Fed cut interest rates in line with market expectations, VN-Index continued to trade with low liquidity and small fluctuations. The index closed around MA20 and above MA50 with RSI moving at a neutral level of 57. The market sentiment is generally cautious, as buyers wait for more information while sellers are not ready to take profits. We believe that the market will move in a narrow range of 1,600-1,700 points in the short term to wait for information on the upgrade and Q3/2025 business results. New cash flow appearing around 1,700 will decide whether the market will continue to increase or will need to make adjustments in the near future.

In the positive case: Rumors about the market upgrade can help attract new cash flow and move towards 1,750-1,800 points. Cash flow increases on the upside, the amplitude increases and spreads throughout the market.

In the negative case: The market faces pressure to take profits when the upgrade news is announced, the amplitude of the falling sessions is large and breaks the short-term support zone of 1,600 points. If this level is broken, the market is likely to retest the 1,500-1,550 point area, corresponding to MA 50. 

Strategy: Prioritize the strategy of holding and being ready to sell when reaching the target. For short-term traders, if the market corrects to around 1,600 points and rebounds, it is possible to consider disbursing a low proportion. If the market returns to the 1,540 point area, there will be a clearer buying opportunity for medium-term positions. Investors can disburse more strongly, focusing on groups of stocks with many driving forces such as benefiting from upgrading, strong business results; or lower valuation levels compared to the general market.