Vietnam Insight

▶ The market opened the trading session with a decrease gap of 1.74 points after the index's adjustment session at the end of the previous session. The index fluctuated around the reference level in the morning session despite being supported by foreign net buying. The index continued to trade around the reference level before profit-taking suddenly appeared in the late afternoon session and foreign investors returned to net selling. Vingroup stocks returned and restrained the index's decline in today's session. 

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index decreased by 9.93 points (-0.59%), to 1,670.97 points; the HNX-Index decreased slightly by 1.35 points (-0.48%), to 277.63 points. The liquidity of the entire market in the index's adjustment session remained below the 20-session average at VND37.1 trillion, equivalent to about 1,312 million shares traded. Foreign investors returned to net selling VND138 billion in the session, focusing on selling the most HPG, VNM and MSB. On the other hand, MSN, VPB and VHM were the stocks with the strongest net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: Selling momentum appeared at the end of the session, pulling the market down slightly. Market liquidity continued to remain low. RSI is moving at a neutral level of 58, with intraday volatility lower than ATR. Market sentiment is generally cautious, as buyers wait for more information while sellers are not ready to take profits. We believe that the market will move in a narrow range of 1,600-1,700 points in the short term to wait for information on the upgrade and Q3/2025 business results. New cash flows appearing around 1,700 will determine whether the market will continue to increase or will need to make adjustments in the near future.

In the positive case: Rumors about the market upgrade can help attract new cash flows and move towards 1,750-1,800 points. Cash flows increase on the upside, the range increases and spreads throughout the market. The market is expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bps in today's US market trading session. If it cuts more than 50bps, it will have a very positive impact on market sentiment.

In the negative case: The market faces profit-taking pressure when the upgrade news is announced, the amplitude of the decreasing sessions is large and breaks the short-term support zone of 1,600 points. If this level is broken, the market is likely to retest the 1,500-1,550 point zone, corresponding to MA 50. Strategy: Prioritize the holding strategy and be ready to sell when the target is reached. For short-term traders, if the market corrects to around 1,600 points and rebounds, it is possible to consider disbursing a low proportion. If the market returns to the 1,540 point zone, there will be a clearer buying opportunity for medium-term positions, investors can disburse more strongly, focusing on groups of stocks with many driving forces such as benefiting from the upgrade, strong business results growth; or lower valuation levels compared to the general market.