Vietnam Insight

▶ The market opened the trading session with a gap of 11.97 points after positive information about the market's ability to upgrade. The index immediately faced strong selling pressure with foreign investors continuing to net sell. Foreign investors' net selling pressure weakened in the afternoon session and returned to net buying at the end of the session. However, domestic investors put strong selling pressure in the afternoon session. Vingroup stocks put great downward pressure on the index in today's session. 

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index decreased by 4.00 points (-0.24%), to 1,680.90 points; the HNX-Index decreased slightly by 1.71 points (-0.61%), to 278.98 points. The liquidity of the entire market in the index's adjustment session increased slightly but remained below the 20-session average at VND 44.4 trillion, equivalent to about 1,483 million shares traded. Foreign investors' net selling momentum has slowed down and net bought VND35 billion during the session, focusing on buying the most stocks VIX, HVN and VNM. On the other hand, VPB, SSI and VND were the stocks with the strongest net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: Positive news about the prospect of upgrading helped the market open the session positively and increase by 12 points at one point. However, the cash flow hesitated when the index approached the 1,700 point mark, profit-taking pressure appeared around this area, causing the VN-Index to lose all the gains in the morning session. Market liquidity remained lower than average with small intra-session fluctuations. We believe that the market will move in a narrow range of 1,600-1,700 points in the short term, waiting for information on the upgrade and Q3/2025 business results. New cash flow appearing around 1,700 will decide whether the market will continue to increase or will need to be adjusted in the near future.

In the positive case: Rumors about the market upgrade can help attract new cash flow and move towards 1,750-1,800 points. Cash flow increases in the upward direction, the amplitude increases and spreads throughout the market. Positive cash flow increases in large stock groups such as banks and securities, which is a positive signal for the market.

In the negative case: The market faces profit-taking pressure when the upgrade news is announced, the amplitude of the decreasing sessions is large and breaks the short-term support zone of 1,600 points. If this level is broken, the market is likely to retest the 1,500-1,550 point zone, corresponding to MA 50. 

Strategy: Prioritize the holding strategy and be ready to sell when the target is reached. For short-term traders, if the market corrects to around 1,600 points and rebounds, it is possible to consider disbursing a low proportion. If the market returns to the 1,540 point zone, there will be a clearer buying opportunity for medium-term positions, investors can disburse more strongly, focusing on groups of stocks with many driving forces such as benefiting from the upgrade, strong business results growth; or lower valuation levels compared to the general market.