Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

• A report from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 263,000 (seasonally adjusted), well above the forecast of 235,000 and up by 27,000 from the prior week.
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% in August (seasonally adjusted)—double July’s gain and higher than the 0.3% forecast. On a yearly basis, CPI rose 2.9%, in line with expectations.

Technical View: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,667.2 (+0.02%), forming a long-legged candlestick on the weekly chart. On the daily chart, the index recovered back to the 20-day MA after losing it earlier in the week. However, an emerging RSI divergence signals a potential reversal. The base-case scenario expects the index to fluctuate within the 1,600–1,700 range next week.

Investment Idea: Priority strategy: hold positions and be ready to sell as the index approaches 1,700. Recommended allocation: 50% equities, with potential to add if the index successfully retests the 1,550 support zone (50-day MA). If the index breaks below the 50-day MA (~1,550), investors should fully exit equities. Preferred sectors: Industrial real estate, Securities, Retail, Steel.