Sector Insight

Business results of listed banks
After a quiet period around the Tet Holiday, credit growth at banks accelerated to over 10% end of Q2/2025. Deposit interest rates have not changed much and remain at a historically low level. Banks have been pushing to raise deposit through valuable papers and the interbank market to meet lending demands. Overdue debts (2-5) continued to show a positive trend, gradually decreasing from their peak in 2023. The balance of group 2 debts decreased by 17% compared to the end of 2024. The NPL ratio at the end of Q2 2025 was 1.94%. We noticed that banks are actively writing off NPLs, recovering NPLs, handling collateral, or selling debt to remove bad debt from their balance sheets. At the end of the first six months, listed banks on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) achieved a pre-tax profit growth of about 15%, reaching 56% of their 2025 profit plan.

2. Outlook for 2025-2026

Based on the expectation of GDP growth around 8% for 2025-2026, we anticipate that the banking sector's credit growth could reach an average of 16-17%. We expect Net Interest Margin (NIM) to bottom out in 2025 and stabilize in 2026. The pre-tax profit of listed banks is projected to maintain its upward momentum, increasing by 16% in 2025 and 17% in 2026.

3. Potential banking stocks
CTG, ACB – Reasonable valuation