Vietnam Insight

Nearly a 90% probability of a rate cut is expected at the Fed’s September meeting. US stock futures held steady on Tuesday as investors awaited the latest consumer inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Markets are pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. On Monday, the Dow fell 0.45%, the S&P 500 lost 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.3%, with weakness across most sectors. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower, led to the downside by energy, real estate and technology. The declines came despite President Donald Trump extending a 90-day pause on tariffs for Chinese goods. Trump also announced a deal requiring Nvidia and AMD to remit 15% of revenue from certain AI chip sales to China and confirmed that gold imports, including Swiss bars, would remain tariff-free, easing concerns in precious metals markets.

Waiting for trend confirmation. The VN-Index closed at 1,596.89, up 11.91 points (0.75%), with liquidity around the 20-day average. There were 228 gaining stocks and 97 declining stocks. The stocks that contributed most to the market's rally were MSN, GVR, and MBB, while VIC, VHM, and VRE were the biggest drags. Foreign investors were net sellers of approximately 619 billion VND, focusing on HPG and FPT.

Trading Strategy: Investors are prioritizing holding and taking profits on stocks that have surged sharply. There are currently not many suitable buying points for medium-term positions; new entries are only appropriate for short-term holding strategies. During pullback sessions to around the 1,500 level, corresponding to the MA20, investors may consider disbursing capital if prices show sufficient consolidation. In addition, there are still many stock groups that have not risen as strongly as the broader market and are trading around the 200-day MA, which could also be considered as potential opportunities.