Vietnam Insight

▶ The market opened the trading session with a gap of 14.13 points after the continuous increase of the previous trading sessions. The index was under continuous selling pressure in the morning session. Selling pressure continued to maintain in the early afternoon session, but then the overwhelming demand force brought the index back above the reference level. Foreign investors have reduced the pressure to take profits and net sell in recent sessions. 

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 8.10 points (+0.51%), reaching 1,581.81 points; the HNX-Index increased by 2.20 points (+0.82%), reaching 270.86 points. The liquidity of the whole market remained high above the 20-session average of VND 47.9 trillion, equivalent to about 1,912 million shares traded. Foreign investors returned to net sell slightly VND 79 billion in the session, mostly concentrated in FPT, GEX and VCB. On the other hand, VPB, HPG and TPB were the stocks that foreign investors bought the most.

▶ Technical perspective: VN-Index had a relatively quiet performance in the trading session, liquidity was around the average level and fluctuations were small even though T+ stocks from the trading session had a sudden increase in trading value to investors' accounts. This development shows the hesitation of both buyers and sellers when VN-Index is trading around the old peak. Currently, the index is still trading above MA20 and 50, showing that the uptrend has not been broken in the short term. If VN-Index increases the spread with the consensus of increasing transaction value, the index is expected to move towards the 1,600-1,700 zone. If the cash flow is not supportive (liquidity remains low or high liquidity but cannot break out to accelerate) and the market shows strong selling pressure around the old peak, VN-Index is expected to adjust to around 1,450 points for re-testing.

In the positive case: The market is likely to experience an adjustment before continuing to increase points towards 1,600-1,700 points. Adjustments around 1,400-1,450 will be a good opportunity for investors to increase their positions.

In the negative case: The overwhelming selling pressure causes VN-Index to lose EMA20 and EMA50 points, along with unfavorable economic information that can push VN-Index back to a sideways state within a wide range. 

Strategy: Investors should limit disbursement in recovery sessions with low liquidity and wait for a clearer confirmation of the uptrend. In technical correction sessions around 1,400-1,450 points, investors can consider partial disbursement in stocks with good business results and benefit from market upgrade expectations. In case institutional cash flow does not reappear in the 1,400-1,450 point area, investors can reduce the proportion of stocks to manage risks.