Company Insight

TCB's credit growth for 6M2025 reached 11.6%, with balanced growth across both corporate and retail customer segments.  With the positive recovery of the real estate market, outstanding loans to corporate customers in the real estate and construction sectors saw strong growth (13% and 40% YoY, respectively). For the retail segment, growth was driven by home loans and margin loans, as the stock market entered an uptrend after correcting due to U.S. reciprocal tariffs.

PBT reached 15,135 billion VND, a decrease of 3.2% YoY, representing 48% of the full-year profit plan.

Given the favorable domestic economic growth in the first half of 2025 and the strong recovery of the real estate market (evidenced by the number of new projects, launches, and transaction values), we project TCB to achieve credit growth of 19-20% for 2025. We anticipate NIM to stabilize around 3.8% (a 4%). We expect the NPL ratio to be around 1.2% and the cost of credit risk to be below 1% for 2025. Our forecast for 2025 profit before tax is 30,593 billion VND (+11% YoY), a slight reduction from our most recent report due to the decline in net interest income