Vietnam Insight

Markets are now on edge, awaiting Tehran’s response amid fears of broader regional instability and higher oil prices. US stock futures edged lower on Monday after the US launched strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, fueling a fresh spike in oil prices and stoking fears of broader conflict in the Middle East. The move came unexpectedly, as President Donald Trump had stated on Friday that he would decide on a potential strike “within the next two weeks,” which had raised hopes for a diplomatic window. Following the attack, Trump said on Saturday, “there will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.” Markets are now bracing for a possible retaliation from Tehran, including the risk of attacks on US personnel in the region or potential disruption of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Resistance around the recent peak. VNINDEX closed at 1,349.35, down 2.69 points or 0.2%, with liquidity at its 20-day average. There were 135 gainers and 167 decliners in the market, with the banking sector contributing positively. The stocks that contributed most significantly to the market's gains were MBB, VCB, and CTG, while VIC, VHM, and GAS were the biggest contributors to the decline. Foreign investors were net sellers of 573 billion VND, primarily in VIC and VHM. 

Trading Strategy: Investors are temporarily holding off on buying stocks that have already seen strong gains, as capital may shift toward stocks trading below their 200-day or 50-day moving averages. For new buying positions, priority can be given to real estate and banking stocks that are trading at low levels with a consolidation base; however, the allocation should remain modest