Macro/ Strategy

Manufacturing still grew but the sentiment was not optimistic

The industrial production index (IIP) increased by 8.9% YoY and 1.4% MoM in April 2025. In the first 4 months of 2025, IIP increased by 8.4% YoY. The processing and manufacturing sector increased by 10.1% YoY, the electricity production and distribution sector increased by 5.1% YoY; the water supply, waste and sewage management sector grew by 10.2%; the mining sector decreased by 4.5% YoY.

PMI decreased to 45.6 points in April from 50.5 in March. This is the lowest level in the first 4 months of the year. In the first 4 months of 2025, only March was the PMI above 50 - the level of production expansion. The remaining 3 months were below 50 - production contraction. The sharp decline in PMI scores in April came from reactions to the tariff announcement. The number of orders fell sharply, leading to a sharp decline in output. Purchasing activities to prepare for production slowed down, inventories decreased. The pace of hiring new workers also decreased. Business confidence fell in April according to the S&P Global survey.

However, export and import activities in April still recorded a YoY growth. Export turnover increased by 19.8% YoY and import turnover increased by 22.9% YoY. The trade balance in April was reached USD 0.58bn. The YoY growth in export and import was attributable to the “front-loading”. Importers may have active imported goods during the 90-day tariff deferral period.