Vietnam Insight

The Fed has no plans to cut interest rates further in the near future. In regular trading on Wednesday, the Dow and S&P 500 both fell by 0.5% and 0.27%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up by 0.03%. At the monthly level, the CPI also rose 0.5%, the most since August 2023. Figures reinforced the Fed's cautious approach on further rate cuts. Traders are now only pricing in a 25 bps reduction in the fed funds rate for December. However, positive comments from House Speaker Mike Johnson regarding tariff exemptions helped support market sentiment, partially offsetting broader losses.  All measures came above forecasts with the headline inflation unexpectedly rising to 3% and the core one increasing to 3.3%. 

Accumulation and cash flow rotation trend. VNINDEX closed at 1,266.91 (-1.54 points, -0.21%) with liquidity equivalent to the 20-session average. Most stock groups experienced slight adjustments, except for securities, public investment, and insurance stocks, which saw outstanding increases. The VN-Index continues to trade sideways with cash flow rotation. The short-term trend is still considered positive as the MACD line maintains a positive reversal signal above the zero line. In a positive scenario, the index will need time to re-accumulate.

Trading Strategy: The market is currently trending towards a sideways trading pattern. For short-term trading, investors can consider deploying capital around the 1,240-point range and gradually take profits as it approaches 1,300 points. With a buy-and-hold strategy, investors can deploy additional capital when the VN-Index breaks out of and successfully defends the 1,300-point zone.