Macro/ Strategy

The economy in 2023 witnessed global inflation, along with geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine war, which made import and export activities difficult and pushed up commodity prices continuously.

The import and export situation was constantly tense as high import material prices increased the cost of goods sold, eroding gross profit margins for businesses. Along with that, there was a decrease in revenue due to high inflation and a backlog of inventory after the COVID-19 pandemic, which reduced demand for goods. In the first 6 months of the year, the total import and export turnover reached 316.5 billion USD (-14.8% YoY), by the 9th month, the decrease was only 11%, and by the end of 2023, the total import and export turnover for the year reached 681 billion USD (-6.7% YoY), of which the export of agricultural and forestry products increased sharply, and the group of electronic goods, computers and components continued to recover.

Imports and exports are expected to recover more strongly in 2024, driven by (1) central banks cutting interest rates to stimulate global consumer demand and (2) export enterprises improving gross profit margins thanks to input prices cooling down and handling the remaining inventory from 2022.

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