Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

• The US CPI accelerated for the second consecutive month to 3.5% in March 2024, the highest level since September, above the 3.2% in February and the forecast of 3.4%.
• As of the morning of April 12, global gold prices surged to $2,385.6 per ounce, up $45 from yesterday morning. This is the all-time high for global gold, pushing SJC gold close to 85 million VND.
• As of the morning of April 12, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong at 24,046 VND/USD - up 10 VND.

Assessment: Higher-than-expected CPI data caused global markets to decline, dragging down the VNINDEX on April 10. However, according to statistics, in all 4 CPI forecasts since the beginning of this year, the actual data has been higher than expectations, but the VNINDEX has maintained an upward trend over the same period. We believe that the VNINDEX's upward trajectory has been strongly supported by expectations of economic recovery, positive Q1 business results, and information from shareholders' meetings. In addition, it is important to note that the risk of energy prices will make it difficult for the US CPI to decline as expected, leading to the FED's continued delay in cutting interest rates, which will have a negative impact on the market.

Technical view: On the weekly chart, the VNINDEX closed at 1,276 (+21.79 points, +1.71%) with low liquidity. The market has successfully tested the 1,250 zone, indicating that the upward trend is continuing.

Investment Ideas: Investors should prioritize disbursing funds into stocks that have surged from a good accumulation base. Banking, oil and gas, and export sectors will be the focus of cash flow.

• Movement of cash flows and capital flows
• Top stocks worth noting
• Macro data