Macro/ Strategy

GDP growth in 2024Q1 was estimated at 5.66%YoY, higher than the growth rate of first quarter in period 2020-2023. Of which, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector grew steadily at 2.98%; both industrial and construction sector, service sector increased by over 6%, reaching 6.28% and 6.12%, respectively.

GDP growth in 2024Q1 was quite equal to the high growth scenario (6.5% for 2024) according to Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP dated January 5, 2024 of the Government. However, we maintain our GDP forecast in 2024 at 6% due to domestic consumption showed signs of slowing. Continuously promoting public investment; maintaining low interest rate to stimulate credit demand; and accelerating legal instructions for the Land Law to restore real estate market could be important driving forces for GDP growth in the following quarters.

Meanwhile, inflation will be under more pressure in the coming time due to rising prices of foods, gasoline, electricity, and wages. Exchange rates also face greater pressures after US inflation data in March was hotter than expected, pushing Fed's rate cut expectation to September 2024.