Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

• According to data released by the GSO on the morning of March 29, the total import and export turnover of goods in March 2024 is estimated to reach 65.09 billion USD, an increase of 35.6% compared to the previous month and an increase of 12% compared to the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2024, the total import and export turnover of goods reached 178.04 billion USD, an increase of 15.5% compared to the same period last year, of which export increased by 17% and import increased by 13.9%.
• GDP in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 5.66%, the highest in 4 years.
• Exchange rate fluctuations have caused foreign investors to restructure their cash flow, creating a net selling pressure of nearly 9,900 billion VND since the beginning of the year.

Assessment: VNINDEX maintained a good increase although the increase was not much this week. The driving force for the increase comes from expectations of economic recovery in 2024, Q1 business results and the ongoing shareholder meeting season. Therefore, we expect that the market will hardly have any sharp drops of more than 30 points, at least until around May - the time when information support is low. It is worth noting that the strong net selling by foreign investors is also a risk that investors need to be aware of.

Technical view: On the weekly chart, VNINDEX increased slightly by 2.29 points, +0.18%, showing that supply and demand are more balanced, and the increase is showing signs of slowing down. The STOCH RSI indicator is entering the short-term overbought zone but still has room to continue increasing. However, the risk of T+ trading is high, so investors are advised to limit, especially with stocks that have increased significantly compared to support levels.

Investment Ideas: Investors holding stocks need to consider the support levels of 1,260 as the short-term support level of VNINDEX, and 1,220 as the medium-term support level to sell in time. It is expected that the import-export and real estate, securities sectors will attract more attention from cash flow in the near future.

• Movement of cash flows and capital flows
• Top stocks worth noting
• Macro data