Sector Insight

Accumulated in 10M/2023, commercial electricity output reached 234.1 billion kWh, growing 3.9% YoY in the context of weak industrial production and construction activities. Specifically, the IIP index of September and October increased by 2.89% YoY and 4.4% YoY respectively, quite low compared to the growth rate in 2022.

We expect that electricity output growth will be low in 2023 but will improve in 2024. Specifically, according to EVN, commercial electricity output growth in 2023 and 2024 is expected to be 4% and 8.9%, respectively, as the economy strengthens. In addition, according to Power Plan VIII, the government's commercial electricity output target for 2025 and 2030 is 335 billion kWh and 505.2 billion kWh, corresponding to CAGR growth of 11%/year in the period 2022-2025, and 9%/year in the period 2025-2030.

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