Macro update Jan 2023 - Macro indicators affected by Tet holiday, inflation warning
- The health of the manufacturing sector is still in solid deterioration when the index of industrial production (IIP) in January decreased by 8%YoY and the PMI, although increased slightly to 47.4, was still below the threshold of 50.
- Retail sales increased strongly by 20%YoY in Jan but still lower than pre-pandemic scale, indicating the room for growth remains.
- Inflation of Jan increased hot by 4.89%YoY, core inflation even grew higher by 5.21%YoY, challenging the inflation target of 4.5% in 2023. Therefore, we believe that the monetary policy will still prioritize inflation control target and another increase of interest rate by SBV will come soon.
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