Vietnam Insight

The VN-Index closed the 01/10/2026 session at 1,749.30 points (-1.09%), a mixed session with market-wide liquidity of VND 19,735 bn. Basic Resources led sector gains (+0.91%), while VN-Index has officially broken below MA50. Foreign investors net sold VND 79 billion, concentrated in TCB, MSB and VNM. In contrast, SBT, VHM and HDB saw solid net buying. The VN-Index is expected to trade within a support zone of 1,720 and resistance of 1,800 points over the coming sessions.

Technical: The MA50 level at 1,770 was officially broken on heavy declines in VIC and STB. The next support zone to watch is 1,720 - 1,730, in line with the most recent trough. On a positive note, however, today's liquidity was not large, suggesting the selling pressure has not yet been accompanied by broad-based capitulation. Selling pressure may persist over the coming sessions; watch how flows react at the 1,720 and 1,680 support zones to confirm the next trend. In the positive medium-term scenario, strong net foreign buying would meaningfully support domestic investor sentiment, confirm the uptrend, and help the VN-Index move toward the 2,000 – 2,100 zone in the second half of 2026. In the base medium-term scenario, by contrast, if net foreign buying is not strong enough and other macro factors remain unsupportive — continued domestic rate increases, renewed Iran–U.S. geopolitical tension — the VN-Index could lack the inflows needed to break out of its current trend.

Short-term scenarios for the next 2 weeks:

Bullish (10%): The market heads toward 1,900 points without needing to consolidate first

Base case (55%): The market consolidates tightly around the MA50 zone of 1,800 points

Bearish (35%): The market falls to the lower bound of the support zone around 1,725

Strategy: Investors may consider accumulating at lower levels among large-cap names that upgrade-related capital flows are focusing on, which offer attractive valuations alongside solid fundamentals. That said, investors should remain cautious and avoid chasing prices higher, as the dominant trend remains sideways within a range.