Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index edged lower in Wednesday’s trading session, while liquidity remained broadly unchanged. The index traded mostly around the reference level throughout the session, with volatility picking up only toward the close amid selling pressure from Q3 fund portfolio rebalancing activities. Overall, market dynamics remained largely unchanged. The index continued to hold above its 50-day moving average (MA50), with the current price area still viewed as a short-term support zone. Liquidity was broadly flat compared with previous sessions. Meanwhile, foreign investors stepped up their net selling during the session.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index fell 9.11 points (-0.51%) to 1,768.62, while the HNX-Index gained 1.73 points (+0.64%) to 271.64. Total trading value across the three exchanges reached VND 16.3 trillion, equivalent to approximately 714 million shares traded. Foreign investors maintained net selling pressure, recording a net sell value of VND 890 billion on HOSE, with VHM, TCB, and VIC among the most heavily sold stocks. In contrast, HDB, FRT, and MSN were among the stocks attracting notable foreign net buying.

▶ Technical View: The MA50 level, corresponding to around 1,800 points, continues to be tested, as the market has failed to decisively break above this threshold for several consecutive sessions. Given the backdrop of weak liquidity and limited active buying interest, we maintain our view that the prevailing trend remains range-bound. The market has yet to show any meaningful change in its price and volume structure. Key reference support and resistance levels are 1,720 and 1,880 points, respectively.

Medium-term bullish scenario: We expect strong foreign net buying flows to return and support domestic investor sentiment, confirming an uptrend and helping the VN-Index advance toward the 2,000–2,100 range in H2/2026.

Medium-term base-case scenario: Conversely, if foreign net buying is insufficiently strong and other macro factors become less supportive, such as further increases in domestic interest rates or renewed escalation in Iran–US geopolitical tensions, the VN-Index could face a lack of liquidity and struggle to break out of its current trend.

Short-term scenarios for the next two weeks:

• Bullish (10%): The market advances toward 1,900 without requiring further consolidation.

• Base case (55%): The market consolidates tightly around the 50-day MA at 1,800.

• Bearish (35%): The market retreats toward the lower bound of the support zone at around 1,725.

▶ Strategy: Investors may consider accumulating large-cap stocks at lower price levels, particularly those expected to attract inflows associated with the market upgrade, with attractive valuations and strong fundamentals (FA). However, investors should remain cautious and avoid chasing stocks at elevated prices, as the prevailing trend remains range-bound.