Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index traded within a narrow range during Tuesday’s session, spending most of the day in negative territory. PNJ and NVL remained in the spotlight as both stocks continued to close at their floor prices with significant sell-side overhang amid strong selling pressure. Liquidity remained subdued, with matching value reaching VND 12 trillion on HOSE and VND 13.5 trillion across the three exchanges. Overall, market dynamics remained largely unchanged. The prevailing trend continues to be range-bound trading, and stronger cash flow participation is needed to drive the index toward higher levels.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index fell 2.95 points (-0.17%) to 1,777.73, while the HNX-Index declined 1.4 points (-0.52%) to 269.91. Total trading liquidity across the three exchanges reached VND 13.5 trillion, equivalent to approximately 610 million shares traded. Foreign investors maintained net selling pressure, recording net sales of VND 397 billion on HOSE, with VPB, HPG, and ACB among the most heavily sold stocks. Conversely, PVT, PLX, and VIB were among the notable net-bought stocks.

▶ Technical View: The market showed limited volatility, forming a Doji candlestick on low liquidity around the 50-day MA at 1,800 points, indicating a relatively balanced supply-demand dynamic. The market has also filled the late-August upward gap, while the prevailing trend remains range-bound. This leaves the 1,800-point level and the 50-day MA relatively vulnerable. We have yet to see any signs of a change in the market’s price and volume structure. Reference support and resistance levels are 1,720 and 1,880 points, respectively.

Medium-term bullish scenario: We expect strong foreign net buying flows to return and support domestic investor sentiment, confirming an uptrend and helping the VN-Index advance toward the 2,000–2,100 range in H2/2026.

Medium-term base-case scenario: Conversely, if foreign net buying is insufficiently strong and other macro factors become less supportive, such as further increases in domestic interest rates or renewed escalation in Iran–US geopolitical tensions, the VN-Index could face a lack of liquidity and struggle to break out of its current trend.

Short-term scenarios for the next two weeks:

• Bullish (10%): The market advances toward 1,900 without requiring further consolidation.

• Base case (55%): The market consolidates tightly around the 50-day MA at 1,800.

• Bearish (35%): The market retreats toward the lower bound of the support zone at around 1,725.

▶ Strategy: Investors may consider accumulating large-cap stocks at lower price levels, particularly those expected to attract inflows associated with the market upgrade, with attractive valuations and strong fundamentals (FA). However, investors should remain cautious and avoid chasing stocks at elevated prices, as the prevailing trend remains range-bound.