Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index traded in a tug-of-war session on Monday. The index remained in negative territory throughout the session, at one point retreating to 1,763, down more than 20 points from the reference level. However, buying support emerged toward the end of the afternoon session, helping the index recover and close down by only 4.43 points. Most sectors declined, particularly Financials and Real Estate. In contrast, Oil & Gas stocks were a bright spot amid rising oil prices, with BSR +6.5%, PVS +5.7%, and PVD +3.6%; the Insurance sector also performed positively, with BVH hitting the ceiling price. Liquidity remained subdued, with total market matched-order value reaching only around VND 16 trillion, of which HOSE accounted for VND 15 trillion. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers, although net selling value narrowed compared with previous sessions.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index fell 4.43 points (-0.25%) to 1,780.68, while the HNX-Index declined 0.9 points (-0.33%) to 271.31. Total liquidity across the three exchanges reached VND 16.3 trillion, equivalent to approximately 749 million shares traded. Foreign investors maintained net selling pressure, with net sales of VND 292 billion on HOSE, led by VPB, BVH, and CTG. In contrast, BSR, DCM, and STB were among the stocks seeing notable foreign net buying.

▶ Technical View: The index continued to fluctuate around the 50-day MA at the 1,800 level, forming a long lower-shadow candlestick after declining during the morning session. Most sectors fell, while the Energy sector stood out with solid gains. This suggests that investors remain inclined to buy on dips rather than actively chase prices higher. The index may also retest and fill the upward gap formed in late August, while the prevailing trend remains range-bound, leaving the 1,800 level and the 50-day MA relatively fragile. We have yet to see any signs of a change in the market’s price and volume structure. Reference support and resistance levels are 1,720 and 1,880, respectively.

Medium-term bullish scenario: We expect strong foreign net buying flows to return and support domestic investor sentiment, confirming an uptrend and helping the VN-Index advance toward the 2,000–2,100 range in H2/2026.

Medium-term base-case scenario: Conversely, if foreign net buying is insufficiently strong and other macro factors become less supportive, such as further increases in domestic interest rates or renewed escalation in Iran–US geopolitical tensions, the VN-Index could face a lack of liquidity and struggle to break out of its current trend.

Short-term scenarios for the next two weeks:

• Bullish (10%): The market advances toward 1,900 without requiring further consolidation.

• Base case (55%): The market consolidates tightly around the 50-day MA at 1,800.

• Bearish (35%): The market retreats toward the lower bound of the support zone at around 1,725.

▶ Strategy: Investors may consider accumulating large-cap stocks at lower price levels, particularly those expected to attract inflows associated with the market upgrade, with attractive valuations and strong fundamentals (FA). However, investors should remain cautious and avoid chasing stocks at elevated prices, as the prevailing trend remains range-bound.