Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index extended its sharp decline in Thursday’s trading session, officially falling below the 1,800-point mark. The index closed at 1,775 points, down more than 26 points, with liquidity edging up from the previous session. Despite opening around the reference level, selling pressure intensified in the afternoon, particularly in VIC-VHM, pushing the index steadily lower and briefly to an intraday low of 1,770 points. Market breadth skewed negative, with 228 decliners versus 81 advancers on HOSE. Overall, amid pressure from VIC, persistent foreign net selling, and a lack of supportive cash inflows, the market remains in a short-term correction phase with insufficient momentum to break through to higher levels. Moreover, the market continues to be heavily influenced by price movements in the VIN group, whose fluctuations have had a significant impact on the VN-Index.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index fell 26.56 points (-1.47%) to 1,775.09, while the HNX-Index declined 3.68 points (-1.33%) to 272.77. Total liquidity across the three exchanges reached VND 18.4tn, equivalent to approximately 762mn shares traded. Foreign investors maintained net selling pressure, with net selling of VND 919bn on HOSE, of which VIC and VHM were the two most heavily sold stocks. In contrast, notable net-bought stocks included MSN, GAS, and STB...

▶ Technical view: The market recorded declines across most sectors, with real estate posting the steepest losses, mainly driven by VIC and VHM. In recent sessions, fluctuations in VIC-related stocks have continued to dominate overall market movements, while other sectors have seen relatively limited changes. Currently, the VN-Index is showing signs of retesting its MA50 after more than a month of consolidation without a clear breakout. Despite the market upgrade announcement on September 21, liquidity has yet to improve, prompting us to lower our expectations regarding the timing of confirmation of a strong uptrend. The reference support and resistance range is 1,680–1,900 points.

In the medium-term positive scenario: foreign investors are expected to step up net buying, providing strong support to domestic investor sentiment and confirming the uptrend, thereby helping the VN-Index move toward the 2,000–2,100-point range in the second half of 2026.

In the medium-term base-case scenario: Conversely, if foreign net buying is not strong enough and other macroeconomic factors become less supportive, such as a continued rise in domestic interest rates or renewed escalation of Iran–U.S. geopolitical tensions, the VN-Index may lack sufficient capital inflows and struggle to break out of its current trend.

Short-term scenarios for the next two weeks:

 • Positive (20%): The market moves toward 1,900 points without requiring further accumulation

 • Base case (60%): The market reacts well and consolidates above the MA50

 • Less positive (20%): The market declines toward the lower bound of the support zone at around 1,725 points

Strategy: Investors may consider accumulating at lower price levels in large-cap stocks that are expected to attract capital inflows related to the market upgrade, particularly those with attractive valuations and solid fundamentals (FA). However, investors should remain cautious and avoid chasing stocks at high prices, as the main trend remains sideways within the current trading range.