Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index declined again in Wednesday’s session as selling pressure intensified in VIC and VHM, weighing on the benchmark. VIC alone fell 3.2%, contributing 12 points to the market’s decline. In contrast, banking stocks such as TCB, HDB, and LPB provided solid support, helping limit the downside. Liquidity increased during the declining session, with HOSE trading value reaching VND 17.7 trillion, equivalent to 669 million shares traded. Overall, the index remains range-bound, while the lack of consensus in cash flows continues to limit the momentum needed for a breakout toward higher levels.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index fell 15.28 points (-0.84%) to 1,801.65, while the HNX-Index declined 0.48 points (-0.17%) to 276.45. Total trading value across the three exchanges reached VND 18.6 trillion, equivalent to approximately 735 million shares traded, up from the previous session but still below the 20-session average. Foreign investors stepped up selling, with gross selling value rising to VND 2.5 trillion and net selling reaching VND 1.061 trillion for the session.

▶ Technical view: The market saw declines across most sectors amid low liquidity. The market structure remained largely unchanged, with the VN-Index trading around the 1,800-point level over the past five weeks. In recent sessions, VIC-related stocks have alternated between gains and losses, dominating overall market movements, while other sectors have shown limited changes.

Currently, the VN-Index is forming a solid structure above the 50-day MA, supporting expectations of a move toward higher levels within the ongoing uptrend. However, cash flows have yet to show sufficient consensus to drive prices higher. The reference support and resistance range is 1,680–1,900 points.

In the medium-term positive scenario: foreign investors are expected to step up net buying, providing strong support to domestic investor sentiment and confirming the uptrend, thereby helping the VN-Index move toward the 2,000–2,100-point range in the second half of 2026.

In the medium-term base-case scenario: Conversely, if foreign net buying is not strong enough and other macroeconomic factors become less supportive, such as a continued rise in domestic interest rates or renewed escalation of Iran–U.S. geopolitical tensions, the VN-Index may lack sufficient capital inflows and struggle to break out of its current trend.

Short-term scenarios for the next two weeks:

 • Positive (20%): The market moves toward 1,900 points without requiring further accumulation

 • Base case (60%): The market reacts well and consolidates above the MA50

 • Less positive (20%): The market declines toward the lower bound of the support zone at around 1,725 points

Strategy: Investors may consider accumulating at lower price levels in large-cap stocks that are expected to attract capital inflows related to the market upgrade, particularly those with attractive valuations and solid fundamentals (FA). However, investors should remain cautious and avoid chasing stocks at high prices, as the main trend remains sideways within the current trading range.