Vietnam Insight

▶ VN-Index rebounded strongly in Tuesday’s trading session, fully recovering the losses from the previous session. The index closed at 1,816, successfully holding above the 1,800 level. VIC-VHM played a significant role in supporting the index, rising 3.74% and 1.91%, respectively, and contributing a combined 17 points out of the VN-Index’s total 18-point gain. In addition, several large-cap stocks such as MSN and VNM also posted solid gains and saw strong net buying from foreign investors during the session. However, a notable point was the extremely low market liquidity, with trading value on HOSE reaching only VND 13 trillion, reflecting cautious sentiment on both the buying and selling sides.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index gained 17.26 points (+0.96%) to 1,816.93 points, while the HNX-Index rose 2.55 points (+0.93%) to 276.93 points. Total liquidity across the three exchanges dropped sharply to only VND 13.8 trillion, equivalent to around 595 million shares traded, down from the previous session. Foreign investors recorded a slight net buying value of VND 54 billion, with TCB, VHM, and VPB seeing the strongest net selling... Conversely, notable net-bought stocks included SBT, MCH, and VIC...

▶ Technical view: The market remained divergent amid low liquidity, leaving the overall market structure unchanged. In today’s session, Vingroup-related real estate stocks staged a strong rebound following the sharp decline in the previous session. Several banking stocks, such as ACB and VPB, continued to see large-volume transactions during the ATC session. Currently, the VN-Index is forming a solid structure above the MA50, raising expectations for a move toward higher levels within the prevailing uptrend. However, cash flow has yet to show sufficient consensus to drive prices higher. The reference support-resistance range is 1,680 - 1,900 points.

In the medium-term positive scenario, foreign investors are expected to step up net buying, providing strong support to domestic investor sentiment and confirming the uptrend, thereby helping the VN-Index move toward the 2,000–2,100-point range in the second half of 2026.

In the medium-term base-case scenario: Conversely, if foreign net buying is not strong enough and other macroeconomic factors become less supportive, such as a continued rise in domestic interest rates or renewed escalation of Iran–U.S. geopolitical tensions, the VN-Index may lack sufficient capital inflows and struggle to break out of its current trend.

Short-term scenarios for the next two weeks:

 • Positive (20%): The market moves toward 1,900 points without requiring further accumulation

 • Base case (60%): The market reacts well and consolidates above the MA50

 • Less positive (20%): The market declines toward the lower bound of the support zone at around 1,725 points

Strategy: Investors may consider accumulating at lower price levels in large-cap stocks that are expected to attract capital inflows related to the market upgrade, particularly those with attractive valuations and solid fundamentals (FA). However, investors should remain cautious and avoid chasing stocks at high prices, as the main trend remains sideways within the current trading range.