Vietnam Insight

▶ Selling pressure intensified during the trading session on Monday, September 21, which was also the first trading session following the official market upgrade. Accordingly, the VN-Index closed down 16 points, with liquidity reaching over VND 17 trillion, approximately in line with the 20-session average. Market breadth tilted sharply to the downside, with 205 decliners and only 105 gainers. Overall, red dominated most sectors, except for several Banking and Oil & Gas stocks, which managed to maintain relatively strong gains despite the correction in global oil prices. Notably, foreign investors returned to net selling today, with VHM, VIC, and FPT recording the strongest net selling values.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index fell 15.99 points (-0.88%) to 1,799.67 points, while the HNX-Index declined 0.91 points (-0.33%) to 274.38 points. Total liquidity across the three exchanges reached VND 18.5 trillion, equivalent to approximately 730 million shares traded, down from the previous session. Foreign investors recorded net selling of VND 664 billion, with VHM, VIC, and FPT being the most heavily sold stocks. Conversely, notable net-bought stocks included MCH, VPB, and CTG...

▶ BSR (+3.97%), VPB (+2.00%), and BID (+1.12%) were the three largest positive contributors supporting the VN-Index. On the other hand, VHM (-2.96%), VCB (-1.34%), and MCH (-3.15%) were the three biggest drags on the index.

▶ Technical view: The market remained divergent amid low liquidity. As a result, the market structure remained unchanged.

 The VN-Index is currently forming a solid structure above the MA50, supporting expectations for a move toward higher levels within an uptrend. However, cash flow has yet to show sufficient consensus to drive prices higher. The reference support-resistance range is 1,680–1,900 points.

In the medium-term positive scenario, foreign investors are expected to step up net buying, providing strong support to domestic investor sentiment and confirming the uptrend, thereby helping the VN-Index move toward the 2,000–2,100-point range in the second half of 2026.

In the medium-term base-case scenario: Conversely, if foreign net buying is not strong enough and other macroeconomic factors become less supportive, such as a continued rise in domestic interest rates or renewed escalation of Iran–U.S. geopolitical tensions, the VN-Index may lack sufficient capital inflows and struggle to break out of its current trend.

Short-term scenarios for the next two weeks:

 • Positive (20%): The market moves toward 1,900 points without requiring further accumulation

 • Base case (60%): The market reacts well and consolidates above the MA50

 • Less positive (20%): The market declines toward the lower bound of the support zone at around 1,725 points

Strategy: Investors may consider accumulating at lower price levels in large-cap stocks that are expected to attract capital inflows related to the market upgrade, particularly those with attractive valuations and solid fundamentals (FA). However, investors should remain cautious and avoid chasing stocks at high prices, as the main trend remains sideways within the current trading range.