Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index posted a solid gain in Thursday’s trading session despite FED’s decision to increase interest rate, driven primarily by Financial and Real Estate stocks. Many stocks in these sectors recorded strong advances and contributed significantly to the market’s overall rise. The rally was partly supported by the announcement, made during the morning session, of eased credit control requirements for tourism and resort real estate projects. Market liquidity also improved, surpassing the 20-session average. Foreign investors returned to net selling after three consecutive net-buying sessions, although the net selling value was not substantial.

▶ At the close of the session, the VN-Index gained 12.66 points (+0.7%) to end at 1,822.77 points, while the HNX-Index rose 0.68 points (+0.25%) to 273.90 points. Total trading value across the three exchanges improved to VND 19.2 trillion, equivalent to approximately 796 million shares traded. Foreign investors posted net sales of VND 359 billion, with VHM and VIC experiencing the strongest net selling pressure. On the other hand, notable net-bought stocks included banking names such as HDB and MBB, as well as FPT and BSR.

▶ Technical view: The VN-Index turned more positive after fully pricing in the FED’s widely expected 25-basis-point interest rate hike. Most sectors closed in positive territory, leading to a significant improvement in market breadth. The Technology sector posted the strongest gains.

In addition, foreign investors’ net buying activity appeared to be a key driver behind the upward momentum of several stocks. In the coming sessions, the market is likely to focus on the Vietnam market upgrade story, with tomorrow expected to witness exceptionally high trading volumes and turnover.

Short-term outlook for the next two weeks:

• Bullish scenario (15%): The market advances toward the 1,900-point level without requiring a consolidation phase.

• Base scenario (60%): The market reacts positively and consolidates above the 50-day Moving Average (MA50).

• Less favorable scenario (20%): The market declines toward the lower boundary of its support zone, around 1,725 points.

Strategy: Investors are advised to remain patient and wait for periods of volatility or pullbacks accompanied by low trading volume to identify attractive entry points for a medium- to long-term accumulation strategy, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals. For short-term trading strategies, investors should closely monitor foreign capital flows. Nevertheless, caution remains warranted, and investors are advised to prioritize a range-trading approach while market trends become clearer.