Vietnam Insight

▶ The market experienced a quiet trading session with a narrow range, as most stocks continued to move sideways. Liquidity declined slightly compared with the previous three sessions, with trading volume falling below the 20-day average. Overall, the session's highlights came from several individual stocks such as SSB and GVR. Notably, SSB continued its strong breakout, hitting the ceiling price for the third consecutive session. Foreign investors recorded a mild net buying position, mainly concentrated in SBT.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index fell 1.04 points (-0.06%) to close at 1,810 points; the HNX-Index declined 0.91 points (-0.33%) to 273 points. Total liquidity across the three exchanges reached VND 16.3 trillion, equivalent to approximately 673 million shares traded. Foreign investors recorded strong net buying of VND 259 billion, mainly in stocks such as SBT, FPT, and BSR. Conversely, notable stocks subject to net selling included VHM, VIC, and VIX.

▶ SSB (+6.94%), GVR (+3.72%), and DMX (+4.9%) were the three stocks contributing the most to supporting the VN-Index. On the other hand, VCB (-1.17%), GAS (-2.19%), and VHM (-0.56%) were the three stocks that weighed most heavily on the index.

▶ Technical view:

VNINDEX showed mixed movements across sectors. Even within the banking sector, there was no clear consensus, as also reflected in the low liquidity. Foreign net buying appears to have supported gains in several stocks. In the coming sessions, the market is likely to react strongly around the 50-day MA at approximately 1,800 points, a relatively balanced area within the 1,650–1,900 trading range.

For the positive medium-term scenario, the following factors should be monitored: easing inflationary pressures, a Fed interest rate decision that is at least not a rate hike, and continued foreign net buying. Under this scenario, market breadth could improve significantly, with the VN-Index expected to move toward the 2,000–2,100 range in the second half of 2026.

For the base medium-term scenario: Conversely, if foreign net selling pressure persists, domestic interest rates continue to rise, VIC and VHM weaken, geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US escalate again, and the Fed maintains high interest rates, the VN-Index may face a lack of liquidity and struggle to break out of its current trend.

Strategy: Investors should remain patient and wait for low-volume fluctuations and corrections to identify suitable entry points for medium- to long-term accumulation, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals. For short-term strategies, investors should continue to monitor foreign capital flows. However, investors should remain cautious and prioritize range-bound trading strategies.