Vietnam Insight

▶ After a reddish start to the week, the market experienced a positive recovery on Tuesday, posting an impressive gain of 23 points. The Oil & Gas sector remained the key highlight, extending its momentum from rising global oil prices. Many stocks in this group recorded solid gains of 5-7%, including GAS, BSR, PVS, and PLX. Gelex and other stocks within its ecosystem also rebounded sharply after hitting the floor in the previous session. Market breadth was positive, with 232 advancing stocks versus only 86 decliners on HOSE. Overall, although liquidity showed limited improvement, the upward momentum was broadly spread across the market.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index gained 22.92 points (+1.28%) to finish at 1,811.15 points, while the HNX-Index rose 2.19 points (+0.81%) to 274.13 points. Total trading value across the three exchanges reached VND 17.8 trillion, equivalent to approximately 708 million shares traded. Foreign investors maintained strong net buying, with net purchases totaling VND 719 billion, led by VCB, BSR, and BID. On the other hand, the most heavily net-sold stocks were VIC, VHM, and STB.

▶ Technical view: The VN-Index showed a significant improvement in market breadth, with most sectors closing in positive territory. Foreign investors' strong net buying continued to provide support for the market's upward momentum, particularly in stocks such as VCB and BSR.

In the coming sessions, the market is likely to react strongly around the 50-day moving average (MA50), which corresponds to the 1,800-point level. This area represents a relatively balanced zone within the broader trading range of 1,650-1,900 points. Under a positive scenario, if liquidity improves, capital flows become more widespread, and sector performance moves in greater alignment, it would be an important signal that the market structure has shifted from a sideways trend to an upward trend.

In the positive medium-term case: Key factors to monitor include easing inflation concerns, a Federal Reserve interest rate decision that is at least non-hawkish (i.e., no further rate hikes), and continued net buying by foreign investors. Under this scenario, market participation is expected to broaden significantly, and the VN-Index could potentially advance toward the 2,000-2,100 point range in the second half of 2026.

In the base medium-term case: Conversely, if foreign investors resume net selling, domestic interest rates continue to rise, and major stocks such as VIC and VHM weaken further, while geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States escalate again and the Fed maintains a high-interest-rate environment, the VN-Index may struggle to attract sufficient capital inflows and could face difficulties breaking out of its current trading trend.

Strategy: Investors should remain patient and wait for periods of market volatility and correction accompanied by low liquidity to identify suitable entry points for a medium- to long-term accumulation strategy, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals. For short-term trading strategies, investors should pay closer attention to foreign capital flows. However, caution is still warranted, and investors are advised to prioritize a range-trading approach while the market remains within its current trading band.