Vietnam Insight

The market is pricing in a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike. US stock futures edged lower on Tuesday as Wall Street returned from a holiday-extended weekend, with elevated oil prices keeping inflation risks and interest rate concerns in focus. Oil prices climbed further after the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend. Investors also faced mounting trade tensions as Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of US goods come into effect on Tuesday. On the monetary policy front, markets are pricing in about a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points next week. In corporate developments, Uber hired banks to meet with investors this week ahead of a planned debut euro bond sale. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk halted two additional trials of its experimental heart disease drug, dealing another setback to the treatment’s prospects.

Sideways trading within a wide range, with resistance at 1,900 points. The VN-Index ended the trading session at 1,821.64 points, down 31.44 points (-1.7%), while trading volume remained below the 20-session average. There were 84 advancers and 235 decliners during the session. The stocks contributing positively to the index were VPL, LPB, and SSB, while VIC, VCB, and VHM weighed on the index. Foreign investors were net sellers of VND470 billion, with selling activity mainly concentrated in VCB and CTG.

Trading Strategy: Investors should remain patient and wait for market pullbacks or short-term volatility on relatively low trading liquidity to identify more attractive entry points. The preferred strategy is to focus on stocks that have yet to rally significantly relative to the broader market, but have solid business fundamentals, positive growth prospects, and reasonable valuations. This approach can help mitigate the risk of chasing stocks that have already experienced sharp rallies. Meanwhile, investors should avoid excessive optimism when the market moves up strongly and refrain from increasing their exposure too aggressively at elevated price levels. Maintaining an appropriate cash position will provide greater flexibility to deploy capital during market corrections while allowing investors to better manage downside risks.

Current portfolio: MBB, POW, NVL; Watchlist: HPG, REE, BVH, GAS and securities stock (HCM, SSI, VCI…)

High-risk stocks to avoid: HDG