Vietnam Insight

Awaiting the July PCE inflation report. US stock futures slipped on Monday as investors remained cautious following a sharp rise in Treasury yields that pressured major averages last week. The Dow dropped 0.8% last week for its second consecutive weekly decline, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4% and 2%, respectively, snapping three-week winning streaks. The selloff came as the 30-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, reaching its highest level in nearly two decades, while bond yields in Japan, France and Germany also rose to multi-year highs. Investors remained concerned that the prolonged US-Iran conflict could keep oil prices elevated and fuel inflation, limiting the scope for lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to announce new sanctions on Iran, while markets await the July PCE inflation report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. Nvidia and Marvell Technology earnings will also be closely watched this week.

Range-Bound trading with resistance at 1,800. The VN-Index ended the session at 1,768.12 points, up 33.88 points (+1.95%), with trading volume broadly in line with the 20-session average. 263 stocks advanced, while 70 declined. VIC, VHM, and VCB were the top positive contributors to the index, while DMX, CRV, and LPS exerted the largest negative impact. Foreign investors recorded net buying of VND39 billion, mainly concentrated in VCB, BSR, and GMD.

Trading Strategy: Investors may take advantage of market pullbacks to gradually accumulate positions while maintaining a prudent cash allocation to manage risk and preserve flexibility to increase exposure once a market recovery is confirmed. Investors should avoid using margin to bottom-fish, as the market may still be in the process of forming a second bottom. In addition, technical rebound sessions provide an opportunity to rebalance portfolios by reducing exposure to companies whose business performance has fallen short of expectations.

Buy Recommendaiton: NVL; Current portfolio: MBB, POW; Watchlist: HPG, REE, BVH

High-risk stocks to avoid: Real estate (PDR, KDH, NLG), HDG