Vietnam Insight

Stable market performance. US stock futures edged higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to a relatively quiet week, with earnings from major retailers likely to provide fresh clues about the health of the economy. Home Depot is set to report on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday. On the economic front, investors will scrutinize the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes on Wednesday after subdued US inflation data last week prompted traders to scale back expectations for a rate hike in September. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are coming off three consecutive weekly gains, with the former hovering near record highs. A strong earnings season has supported Wall Street despite geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and lingering concerns surrounding the artificial intelligence trade.

Range-Bound trading with resistance at 1,800. The VN-Index ended the session at 1,729.08 points, down 36.55 points (-2.07%), with trading volume broadly in line with the 20-session average. 67 stocks advanced, while 257 declined. TCB, DXG, and PNJ were the top positive contributors to the index, while VIC, VHM, and VCB weighed most heavily on performance. Foreign investors recorded net selling of nearly VND873 billion, mainly concentrated in VIC, VHM, and SSI.

Trading Strategy: Investors may take advantage of market pullbacks to gradually accumulate positions while maintaining a prudent cash allocation to manage risk and preserve flexibility to increase exposure once a market recovery is confirmed. Investors should avoid using margin to bottom-fish, as the market may still be in the process of forming a second bottom. In addition, technical rebound sessions provide an opportunity to rebalance portfolios by reducing exposure to companies whose business performance has fallen short of expectations.

Current portfolio: LPB, PAN, MBB, POW; Watchlist: HPG, REE, NVL

High-risk stocks to avoid: Real estate (PDR, KDH, NLG), HDG and PNJ