Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, despite three dissenting votes.

The SBV further relaxed the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) regulation, effective tomorrow (August 1). Under the new rule, banks will be allowed to include 50% of term deposits from the State Treasury in the LDR calculation, up from the current 20%.

Q2 earnings season continued to deliver upside surprises, with companies such as VCB, HPG, and POW reporting results that exceeded expectations.

Assessment: The market staged a recovery as concerns over alleged violations at several listed companies gradually subsided. At the same time, a number of large-cap companies reported impressive earnings growth, prompting investors to reassess market valuations. Since the beginning of 2026, although many companies have delivered solid earnings growth, their share price performance has largely failed to reflect these fundamentals.

Technical view: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,735 points (+49.67 points, +2.95%) on the weekly chart, despite relatively low trading liquidity. Market sentiment improved modestly. The 1,700-point level continues to serve as strong support, having repeatedly acted as an accumulation zone before rebounds. However, the market may still need more time to stabilize around this area. The 1,800-1,850 resistance zone, corresponding to the 50-week moving average (MA50), is expected to create short-term selling pressure as the index approaches this range.

Investment Ideas: Investors may take advantage of market pullbacks to accumulate positions gradually while maintaining a reasonable cash allocation to manage risks and retain flexibility to increase exposure once the market confirms a sustained recovery. The use of margin should remain limited, as the market may still form a second bottom.