Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index recorded positive reversal signals in Thursday's trading session, closing with a gain of over 30 points. The index declined in the morning, at one point reaching 1,658, but bargain-hunting demand in the afternoon helped many stocks reverse course and rise, with the VN-Index recovering approximately 40 points from its lowest point. Overall, today's gain recovered half of yesterday's losses. The strongest performing stocks were VIC and VHM, and the Securities sector (SSI, VCI, VIX...). Today's recovery somewhat eased investor sentiment and reduced the pressure of forced selling in the market. Trading volume was relatively good, indicating improved demand, with foreign investors narrowing their net selling to 489 billion VND.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 30.85 points (+1.85%), closing at 1,699.38 points; the HNX-Index increased 5.58 points (+2.03%), reaching 281.07 points. Total trading volume across all three exchanges reached 21.5 trillion VND, equivalent to approximately 966 million shares traded. Foreign investors narrowed their net selling to 489 billion VND, with selling pressure mainly concentrated in the banking sector. The stocks experiencing the strongest net selling pressure were MBB (-153 billion VND), TCB (-118 billion VND), and VCB (-88 billion VND)... Conversely, typical net buying included SHB (+76 billion VND), LPB (+46 billion VND), and VIC (+40 billion VND)... 

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continued to face selling pressure from margin calls during the morning session and at one point fell to 1,658 points. When the index retreated to the lower end of the previous accumulation range, bottom-buying demand increased in the second half of the session, helping the VN-Index reverse and close up 31 points, returning to the 1,700 point level.

However, this recovery has not yet fully compensated for the sharp 62-point drop of the previous session, showing that demand has improved but is not strong enough to spread widely. To consolidate the bottoming scenario and form a V-shaped recovery pattern, money flow needs to continue in the coming sessions with a sufficiently strong recovery. Conversely, if demand weakens or becomes more cautious, the VN-Index is likely only in a technical recovery before returning to test the bottom area a second time. The RSI has improved but remains around the oversold region (30), while the VN-Index continues to trade below both the MA50 and MA200 moving averages.

Statistics: The percentage of stocks trading above the MA200 line has fallen below 25%, indicating widespread selling pressure is approaching its peak and the market may be entering a bottoming phase. Historically, this indicator has only fallen below 25% during several periods of sharp corrections, such as July 2018, March 2020, November 2022, October 2023, or April 2025. After these periods, the VN-Index recorded significant recovery in the following months.

Strategy: Following the recent sharp correction, the valuations of many stocks have become more attractive, opening up opportunities for accumulation in companies with strong fundamentals and positive growth prospects. Investors can take advantage of market corrections to gradually disburse funds, while maintaining a reasonable cash ratio to manage risk and be ready to increase positions when the market trend confirms a recovery. Investors should limit the use of leverage (margin) to buy at the bottom when the market has not yet confirmed that the downtrend has stopped.