Vietnam Insight

▶ The trading week began with a sharp decline, erasing all gains from previous recovery sessions. Facing unfavorable global news as escalating conflicts worsened, the VN-Index closed the session down 28 points. Although it briefly breached the psychological support level of 1,800 and retreated to 1,781, buying pressure during the ATC session helped many stocks recover, and the VN-Index successfully closed at the 1,800 support level. Liquidity increased during the heavy selling, with trading value soaring to 24 trillion VND. The Banking and Securities sectors experienced the strongest corrections, and VIN-Group stocks also faced selling pressure, further weighing down the index.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 27.8 points (-1.52%), closing at 1,800.54 points. The HNX-Index fell 11.88 points (-3.9%), reaching 291.90 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges increased to 24 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 979 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued net selling 261 shares during the sharp decline. The stocks with the strongest net selling were CTG (-120 billion VND), HPG (-109 billion VND), and VCB (-92 billion VND)... Conversely, typical net buying included VHM (130 billion VND), MBB (82 billion VND), and HDB (59 billion VND)... 

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index recorded a correction of over 27 points, with most stocks closing in the red. Selling pressure intensified sharply in the afternoon, causing the index to drop by more than 45 points at one point. However, bargain hunting emerged when the VN-Index retreated to the MA200 zone, significantly narrowing the decline in the last 15 minutes of trading and during the ATC (Auction Closing Time) period. Overall, despite increased short-term volatility, the market is still in a consolidation phase around the previous peak of 1,750 – 1,850 points. The RSI indicator has approached the oversold zone (currently at 36), therefore a technical rebound may occur in the coming sessions. The main trend remains sideways consolidation, waiting for new capital to enter the market.

In the base medium-term scenario: In an optimistic scenario, a less tense inflation outlook will create room for more flexible monetary policy, supporting market valuations. Businesses maintaining strong profit growth and trading at appropriate valuations despite high domestic interest rates could present good investment opportunities for the medium to long term. In this scenario, the VN-Index is expected to reach the 2,000-2,100 point range in the second half of 2026.

In a negative medium-term scenario: Conversely, if net selling pressure from foreign investors continues, and domestic interest rates continue to rise, leading to decreased market liquidity, the VN-Index may lack positive new capital inflows and is likely to consolidate sideways within the 1,750-1,850 point range in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, along with the possibility of the Fed maintaining high interest rates, could be external factors contributing to this negative scenario, putting pressure on exchange rates and foreign capital flows into emerging markets like Vietnam.

Strategy: Investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on VN-Index fluctuations for medium-term positions. In the short term, consider stocks that have experienced heavy selling pressure and are showing signs of recovery, such as those in the insurance, technology, and real estate sectors. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.