Vietnam Insight

Awaiting key US inflation data; tensions over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persist. US stock futures edged lower on Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of corporate earnings while keeping a close watch on escalating tensions in the Middle East. Major US banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, are set to report their latest quarterly results. Other companies scheduled to release earnings include Johnson & Johnson, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth Group, Intuitive Surgical, and Netflix. S&P 500 companies are expected to post a 24% increase in second-quarter profits, offering a key test of whether strong earnings can support an artificial intelligence-driven rally. Investors are also awaiting key US inflation data this week for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged fresh missile strikes over the weekend amid persistent tensions over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Accumulating ahead of a breakout. The VN-Index closed the week at 1,828.3 points, down all week at 33.7 points (-1.81%) week-on-week, with liquidity remaining low as matched volume on HOSE reached 493.2 million shares. Market breadth tilted firmly toward decliners, with 212 stocks falling. Foreign investors remained net sellers in 3 of 5 sessions during the week, with total net selling of over 56.6 million shares, worth more than VND 2,380 billion on HOSE.

Trading Strategy: Investors may consider accumulating stocks with sideways price structures or only mild corrections, while still maintaining positive earnings growth, for medium-term positioning. Increasing short-term trading exposure or chasing prices higher is not advisable, as weak breadth in cash flow could make any rally lack sustainability.

Current portfolio: MBB

Watchlist: HPG, Seucirities stocks (SHS, VND, VDS)