Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index experienced a slight correction following negative news from the global market, with the US launching airstrikes and reimposing sanctions on Iran after the attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Red color dominated many sectors, except for the Oil and Gas sector, which was a bright spot with several stocks performing well amidst rising global oil prices. The Securities sector also slowed down after yesterday's gains, with a correction of about 1% and low trading volume. Overall, the index remains consolidating around the MA20 area with low liquidity, awaiting more positive information to solidify a stronger recovery.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 13 points (-0.7%), closing at 1,840.70 points; the HNX-Index rose 6.28 points (+2.09%), reaching 306.67 points. Liquidity on all three exchanges decreased compared to the previous trading session, reaching 16 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 668 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell with a value of 453 billion VND during the session. The stocks with the strongest net selling were TCB (90 billion VND), VPB (69 billion VND), and GEX (61 billion VND)... Conversely, typical net buying included BSR (75 billion VND), GAS (42 billion VND), and VNM (40 billion VND)... 

▶ Technical Perspective: The VN-Index recorded a correction of over 13 points; however, liquidity remained low, indicating that profit-taking pressure after the recent rally was not yet strong. This reflects the limited number of shares available for sale at low prices, while existing capital tends to hold, expecting the market to continue towards higher price levels in the near future.

In the short term, we expect the VN-Index to continue fluctuating within the 1,850 – 1,870 point range to build a solid price base before establishing a new trend. If the 1,850 point support level is broken, the index may retreat to fill the price gap around 1,800 points before seeking balanced demand again. The current fluctuations are considered necessary to consolidate the price base and attract more capital during the accumulation process.

In the base medium-term scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Besides external factors, the domestic market is also supported by policies promoting economic growth, abundant liquidity, and expectations of increased passive capital flows after Vietnam is officially upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE Russell from September 2026. The synergy of these factors could create momentum for the market to enter a new growth cycle, with the VN-Index aiming for a target range of 2,000–2,100 points in a positive scenario.

In the negative medium-term scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war period. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. Given the negative developments, risky asset classes in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: Investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation and strong business growth rather than solely focusing on VN-Index fluctuations for medium-term positions. In the short term, consider stocks that have been heavily sold off and are showing signs of recovery, such as insurance, technology, and real estate stocks. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.